Utah Mammoth at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals2
- Mikhail SergachevAssists4
- Mikhail SergachevPoints4
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:53Jack McBain Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (21), Mikhail Sergachev (43)6–2
- P34:34Adrian Kempe Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P216:17Nick Schmaltz Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (51), Mikhail Sergachev (42)5–1
- P212:37Alexander Kerfoot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (18)4–1
- P119:51Logan Cooley Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (50), Mikhail Sergachev (41)3–1
- P117:51Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (35), Joel Edmundson (17)2–1
- P116:33Logan Cooley Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (40), Dylan Guenther (26)2–0
- P12:31Alexander Kerfoot Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:31Alexander Kerfoot Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (29)UTA 1 – 0 LA · UTA 49% → 64% +15UTA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P116:33Logan Cooley Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (40), Dylan Guenther (26)UTA 2 – 0 LA · UTA 66% → 80% +14UTA 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P117:51Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (35), Joel Edmundson (17)UTA 2 – 1 LA · LA 20% → 34% +14LA 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P119:51Logan Cooley Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (50), Mikhail Sergachev (41)UTA 3 – 1 LA · UTA 66% → 81% +14UTA 66% → 81%+14 pts
- P212:37Alexander Kerfoot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (18)UTA 4 – 1 LA · UTA 86% → 95% +9UTA 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 51%
- ML UTA -105 / LA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- LA: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -104
- UTA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +6 Elo | LA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–19 | Road vs home | 10–2430th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 14th of 321507 | Elo rating | 148025th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–41 | 28–44 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 9–33 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 33–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–4 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.