Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- William NylanderAssists3
- William NylanderPoints4
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals2
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:55John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Easton Cowan (15)5–4
- P318:21Leo Carlsson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (23), Jackson LaCombe (44)4–4
- P317:00Morgan Rielly Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (45), John Tavares (36)4–3
- P310:14William Nylander Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (14)3–3
- P36:55Matthew Knies Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (44), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (30)2–3
- P211:33John Carlson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (43), Beckett Sennecke (35)1–3
- P114:18John Tavares Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (43), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (29)1–2
- P19:46Cutter Gauthier Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (16), Chris Kreider (25)0–2
- P16:43Leo Carlsson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (36), Olen Zellweger (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:43Leo Carlsson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (36), Olen Zellweger (14)TOR 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 62% → 76% +14ANA 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P310:14William Nylander Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (14)TOR 3 – 3 ANA · TOR 15% → 45% +30TOR 15% → 45%+30 pts
- P317:00Morgan Rielly Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (45), John Tavares (36)TOR 4 – 3 ANA · TOR 47% → 94% +47TOR 47% → 94%+47 pts
- P318:21Leo Carlsson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (23), Jackson LaCombe (44)TOR 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 2% → 52% +51ANA 2% → 52%+51 pts
- OT4:55John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (25), Easton Cowan (15)TOR 5 – 4 ANA · TOR 50% → 100% +50TOR 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 63%
- ML TOR +160 / ANA -192
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -171
- TOR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −5 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +24 Elo | ANA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.2% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 31st of 3213–23 | Road vs home | 23–124th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 24th of 321484 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–43 | 35–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–32 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–0 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.