Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists2
- John CarlsonPoints2
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:43Zach Hyman Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (82), Connor Murphy (10)2–4
- P39:41Cutter Gauthier Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (6), John Carlson (44)2–3
- P36:53Beckett Sennecke Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (43), Jackson LaCombe (42)1–3
- P36:10Matt Savoie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (17), Connor McDavid (81)0–3
- P34:59Jack Roslovic Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (19), Evan Bouchard (66)0–2
- P27:36Connor McDavid Goal (42) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (2), Evan Bouchard (65)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:36Connor McDavid Goal (42) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (2), Evan Bouchard (65)ANA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 74% +18EDM 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P34:59Jack Roslovic Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (19), Evan Bouchard (66)ANA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 79% → 94% +15EDM 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P36:10Matt Savoie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (17), Connor McDavid (81)ANA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 95% → >99% +5EDM 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P36:53Beckett Sennecke Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (43), Jackson LaCombe (42)ANA 1 – 3 EDM · ANA <1% → 5% +4ANA <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P39:41Cutter Gauthier Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (6), John Carlson (44)ANA 2 – 3 EDM · ANA 3% → 17% +14ANA 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML ANA +124 / EDM -148
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +68 Elo | EDM 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–19 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Elo rating | 15268th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–37 | 29–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 42–30 | 46–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–6 EDM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.