Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals3
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists2
- Olli MaattaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:59Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (42), Cutter Gauthier (27)3–2
- P316:27Mikael Granlund Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (37), John Carlson (41)2–2
- P37:46Matvei Gridin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (8), Matt Coronato (20)1–2
- P23:07Mikael Granlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P21:06Blake Coleman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (16), Olli Maatta (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:06Blake Coleman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (16), Olli Maatta (7)ANA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 64% +18CGY 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P23:07Mikael Granlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 1 CGY · ANA 36% → 54% +18ANA 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P37:46Matvei Gridin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (8), Matt Coronato (20)ANA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 48% → 77% +30CGY 48% → 77%+30 pts
- P316:27Mikael Granlund Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (37), John Carlson (41)ANA 2 – 2 CGY · ANA 7% → 51% +44ANA 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT4:59Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (42), Cutter Gauthier (27)ANA 3 – 2 CGY · ANA 50% → 100% +50ANA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 55%
- ML ANA -135 / CGY +114
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 48.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +11 Elo | CGY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–19 | Road vs home | 20–1612th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149532nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321487 | Elo rating | 145829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–36 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–5 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.