Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:03Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (32), Zack Ostapchuk (3)1–4
- P26:43John Tavares Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (16), William Nylander (46)1–3
- P21:42William Eklund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (34), Kiefer Sherwood (10)0–3
- P117:43Collin Graf Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (10), Tyler Toffoli (29)0–2
- P13:27Zack Ostapchuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (7), Dmitry Orlov (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:27Zack Ostapchuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (7), Dmitry Orlov (30)TOR 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 55% → 69% +14SJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:43Collin Graf Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Misa (10), Tyler Toffoli (29)TOR 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 71% → 84% +13SJ 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P21:42William Eklund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (34), Kiefer Sherwood (10)TOR 0 – 3 SJ · SJ 85% → 93% +8SJ 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P26:43John Tavares Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (16), William Nylander (46)TOR 1 – 3 SJ · TOR 6% → 14% +8TOR 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P319:03Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (32), Zack Ostapchuk (3)TOR 1 – 4 SJ · SJ >99% → 100% +0SJ >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.5% of 1,039 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 55%
- ML TOR +114 / SJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- SJ: Elo 43.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SJ -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +7 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +49 Elo | TOR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.3% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 21st of 321487 | Elo rating | 143330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–43 | 46–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–32 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.