Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Drew HellesonAssists2
- Drew HellesonPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:29Alexander Wennberg Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (65), Sam Dickinson (12)3–4
- P318:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (29), Will Smith (32)3–3
- P34:04Troy Terry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P30:27Macklin Celebrini Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (31), Collin Graf (22)2–2
- P214:59Alex Killorn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (12), Jackson LaCombe (45)2–1
- P117:47Ryan Poehling Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (11), Lukas Dostal (1)1–1
- P14:37Will Smith Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (64)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:59Alex Killorn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (12), Jackson LaCombe (45)ANA 2 – 1 SJ · ANA 50% → 72% +21ANA 50% → 72%+21 pts
- P30:27Macklin Celebrini Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (31), Collin Graf (22)ANA 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 26% → 50% +24SJ 26% → 50%+24 pts
- P34:04Troy Terry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 3 – 2 SJ · ANA 50% → 76% +26ANA 50% → 76%+26 pts
- P318:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (29), Will Smith (32)ANA 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 1% → 50% +49SJ 1% → 50%+49 pts
- P319:29Alexander Wennberg Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (65), Sam Dickinson (12)ANA 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 50% → >99% +50SJ 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML ANA -112 / SJ -108
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 55.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -102
- SJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −15 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +38 Elo | ANA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 18th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321484 | Elo rating | 143030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–39 | 45–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–20 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 7–2 SJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.