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Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Capitals

39-30-9

1–8

at

Home

Rangers

33-36-9

WSH 51%NYR 49%

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Madison Square Garden · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored WSH favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers

Scoring summary

  • P319:28Will Cuylle Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (42), Alexis Lafrenière (31)1–8
  • P32:27Vincent Trocheck Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–7
  • P218:27Adam Fox Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (41), J.T. Miller (33)1–6
  • P213:22Adam Sykora Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (14), Jaroslav Chmelar (2)1–5
  • P28:33Will Cuylle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (36), Vladislav Gavrikov (20)1–4
  • P25:53Will Cuylle Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (16), Jonny Brodzinski (10)1–3
  • P23:07J.T. Miller Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40), Adam Fox (42)1–2
  • P113:45Connor McMichael Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (29), Martin Fehervary (19)1–1
  • P10:23Conor Sheary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (13), Adam Fox (41)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:23Conor Sheary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (13), Adam Fox (41)WSH 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 49% → 63% +14
  2. P113:45Connor McMichael Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (29), Martin Fehervary (19)WSH 1 – 1 NYR · WSH 35% → 51% +16
  3. P23:07J.T. Miller Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40), Adam Fox (42)WSH 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 49% → 67% +18
  4. P25:53Will Cuylle Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (16), Jonny Brodzinski (10)WSH 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 68% → 83% +15
  5. P28:33Will Cuylle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (36), Vladislav Gavrikov (20)WSH 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 84% → 93% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 51%

Toss-upMiss
WSH 51%NYR 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
WSH 51%
ML WSH -115 / NYR -105
Pre-line forecast
WSH 45%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 43%
Ratings vs. market
−7.6 pts
WSH: Elo 43.5%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
WSH -104
NYR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHNYRWhy
Team rating15171477Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—WSH on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−14+7WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYR +46 EloNYR 56.5%
Market-implied ratingsNYR 54.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYR 54.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Washington Capitals and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatNYR
14th of 323.2Goals scored2.924th of 32
10th of 323.0Goals allowed3.114th of 32
12th of 32+0.2Margin−0.220th of 32
16th of 3249.9%Shot share46.3%30th of 32
5th of 3290.4%Save percentage90.4%4th of 32
7th of 326–4Last 104–619th of 32
24th of 3215–22Road vs home13–2630th of 32
16th of 321501Opponent Elo150212th of 32
12th of 321517Elo rating147725th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CapitalsRangers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHNYR
Puck line41–3640–37
Last 106–46–4
Favorite21–279–22
Underdog20–931–15
Overs–unders35–4235–42
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 7–7 NYR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.