Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- David PerronGoals1
- Emmitt FinnieAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Rangers- Gabe PerreaultGoals3
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Gabe PerreaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:27David Perron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (16), James van Riemsdyk (15)1–4
- P318:16Gabe Perreault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Adam Fox (40)0–4
- P37:13Gabe Perreault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (9), Adam Fox (39)0–3
- P215:59Gabe Perreault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (39), Matthew Robertson (12)0–2
- P113:19Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (19), Adam Sykora (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:19Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (19), Adam Sykora (1)DET 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 44% → 60% +16NYR 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P215:59Gabe Perreault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (39), Matthew Robertson (12)DET 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 68% → 85% +17NYR 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P37:13Gabe Perreault Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (9), Adam Fox (39)DET 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 93% → 99% +6NYR 93% → 99%+6 pts
- P318:16Gabe Perreault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Adam Fox (40)DET 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → 100% +0NYR >99% → 100%+0 pts
- P319:27David Perron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (16), James van Riemsdyk (15)DET 1 – 4 NYR · DET 0% → 0% +0DET 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -148 / NYR +124
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 51.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- NYR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −14 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220–18 | Road vs home | 12–2630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–26 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 30–11 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 36–39 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–7 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.