Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints3
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:44Alex DeBrincat Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (32), Patrick Kane (36)4–2
- P310:29Travis Konecny Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Porter Martone (1), Christian Dvorak (31)3–2
- P39:37Patrick Kane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (31)3–1
- P218:29Lucas Raymond Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (15), Simon Edvinsson (14)2–1
- P20:31Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (22), Trevor Zegras (38)1–1
- P118:49Alex DeBrincat Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (35), Moritz Seider (45)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:49Alex DeBrincat Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (35), Moritz Seider (45)DET 1 – 0 PHI · DET 50% → 67% +17DET 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P20:31Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (22), Trevor Zegras (38)DET 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 32% → 50% +17PHI 32% → 50%+17 pts
- P218:29Lucas Raymond Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (15), Simon Edvinsson (14)DET 2 – 1 PHI · DET 50% → 73% +23DET 50% → 73%+23 pts
- P39:37Patrick Kane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (31)DET 3 – 1 PHI · DET 81% → 96% +15DET 81% → 96%+15 pts
- P310:29Travis Konecny Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Porter Martone (1), Christian Dvorak (31)DET 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 3% → 18% +15PHI 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -112 / PHI -108
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- DET: Elo 48.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–37 | 48–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 8–26 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 38–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.