Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Adam FoxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:55Cole Caufield Goal (49) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (30), Nick Suzuki (67)3–2
- P314:08Will Cuylle Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (8), Vincent Trocheck (35)2–2
- P39:23Adam Fox Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (38), Vladislav Gavrikov (18)2–1
- P26:20Cole Caufield Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (38), Nick Suzuki (66)2–0
- P24:36Alex Newhook Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (43)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:36Alex Newhook Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (43)MTL 1 – 0 NYR · MTL 52% → 70% +18MTL 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:20Cole Caufield Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (38), Nick Suzuki (66)MTL 2 – 0 NYR · MTL 71% → 85% +14MTL 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P39:23Adam Fox Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (38), Vladislav Gavrikov (18)MTL 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 4% → 18% +15NYR 4% → 18%+15 pts
- P314:08Will Cuylle Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (8), Vincent Trocheck (35)MTL 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 12% → 49% +37NYR 12% → 49%+37 pts
- P314:55Cole Caufield Goal (49) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (30), Nick Suzuki (67)MTL 3 – 2 NYR · MTL 51% → 90% +39MTL 51% → 90%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML MTL -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- MTL: Elo 53.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +27 Elo | MTL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%7th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 3221–16 | Road vs home | 12–2530th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–32 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 32–4 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–6 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.