Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Egor ChinakhovAssists2
- Egor ChinakhovPoints3
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Paul CotterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:00Erik Karlsson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (27), Noel Acciari (12)5–2
- P36:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (45), Egor Chinakhov (21)4–2
- P215:07Jack Hughes Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (15), Connor Brown (24)3–2
- P211:52Egor Chinakhov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (26), Sidney Crosby (44)3–1
- P211:43Thomas Novak Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (42), Erik Karlsson (51)2–1
- P29:51Paul Cotter Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (24), Brian Halonen (1)1–1
- P14:53Bryan Rust Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (20), Kris Letang (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:51Paul Cotter Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (24), Brian Halonen (1)PIT 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 30% → 50% +20NJ 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P211:43Thomas Novak Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (42), Erik Karlsson (51)PIT 2 – 1 NJ · PIT 50% → 71% +20PIT 50% → 71%+20 pts
- P211:52Egor Chinakhov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (26), Sidney Crosby (44)PIT 3 – 1 NJ · PIT 71% → 86% +15PIT 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P215:07Jack Hughes Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (15), Connor Brown (24)PIT 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 13% → 28% +16NJ 13% → 28%+16 pts
- P36:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (45), Egor Chinakhov (21)PIT 4 – 2 NJ · PIT 78% → 94% +16PIT 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML PIT -112 / NJ -108
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- NJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +9 Elo | NJ 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–17 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 32 |
| 8th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 32 |
| 11th of 321517 | Elo rating | 148821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–32 | 31–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 34–12 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–33 | 36–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–5 NJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.