Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Jayden StrubleGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Oliver Kapanen Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Jack Hughes Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Ivan Demidov Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P317:45Timo Meier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (45), Dougie Hamilton (23)3–3
- P217:40Jack Hughes Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (47), Jonas Siegenthaler (13)3–2
- P213:08Dawson Mercer Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (18), Nico Hischier (36)3–1
- P29:28Lane Hutson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P28:12Ivan Demidov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (36), Nick Suzuki (68)2–0
- P115:58Jayden Struble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (35), Arber Xhekaj (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:58Jayden Struble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (35), Arber Xhekaj (2)MTL 1 – 0 NJ · MTL 53% → 69% +16MTL 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P28:12Ivan Demidov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (36), Nick Suzuki (68)MTL 2 – 0 NJ · MTL 71% → 86% +14MTL 71% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:28Lane Hutson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 0 NJ · MTL 86% → 94% +8MTL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P217:40Jack Hughes Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (47), Jonas Siegenthaler (13)MTL 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 11% → 26% +15NJ 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P317:45Timo Meier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (45), Dougie Hamilton (23)MTL 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 3% → 49% +47NJ 3% → 49%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML MTL -125 / NJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +17 Elo | MTL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15033rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 149019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–33 | 29–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 11–35 |
| Underdog | 32–4 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–32 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–6 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.