New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
CanadiensScoring summary
- P316:35Connor Brown Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (47), Jesper Bratt (48)3–0
- P218:12Cody Glass Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P110:47Timo Meier Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (46)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:47Timo Meier Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (46)NJ 1 – 0 MTL · NJ 43% → 59% +16NJ 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P218:12Cody Glass Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 0 MTL · NJ 69% → 86% +17NJ 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P316:35Connor Brown Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (47), Jesper Bratt (48)NJ 3 – 0 MTL · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 57%
- ML NJ +124 / MTL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- MTL: Elo 63.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -134
- NJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +96 Elo | MTL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–19 | Road vs home | 22–159th of 32 |
| 4th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 32 |
| 20th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15406th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–46 | 42–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–35 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 32–4 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 44–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 6–2 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.