Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals2
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Trevor ZegrasPoints3
Devils- Cody GlassGoals1
- Jonas SiegenthalerAssists1
- Cody GlassPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:09Nick Seeler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P24:58Tyson Foerster Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (40), Matvei Michkov (28)4–1
- P22:46Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (27)3–1
- P112:12Cody Glass Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (14), Lenni Hameenaho (6)2–1
- P13:38Trevor Zegras Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Porter Martone (3), Jamie Drysdale (23)2–0
- P11:56Trevor Zegras Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (26), Owen Tippett (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:56Trevor Zegras Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (26), Owen Tippett (23)PHI 1 – 0 NJ · PHI 47% → 61% +15PHI 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P13:38Trevor Zegras Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Porter Martone (3), Jamie Drysdale (23)PHI 2 – 0 NJ · PHI 62% → 75% +13PHI 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P112:12Cody Glass Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (14), Lenni Hameenaho (6)PHI 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 23% → 37% +14NJ 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P22:46Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (27)PHI 3 – 1 NJ · PHI 66% → 81% +15PHI 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P24:58Tyson Foerster Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (40), Matvei Michkov (28)PHI 4 – 1 NJ · PHI 81% → 91% +10PHI 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML PHI +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +35 Elo | NJ 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 8th of 3221–17 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–28 | 31–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 11–35 |
| Underdog | 39–15 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 NJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.