Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints3
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:16Travis Sanheim Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (26), Alex Bump (4)4–1
- P215:37Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (50), Simon Holmstrom (21)3–1
- P22:52Matvei Michkov Goal (17) Backhand, assists: none3–0
- P115:01Alex Bump Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (25), Noah Cates (26)2–0
- P113:54Owen Tippett Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:54Owen Tippett Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (25)PHI 1 – 0 NYI · PHI 43% → 59% +16PHI 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P115:01Alex Bump Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (25), Noah Cates (26)PHI 2 – 0 NYI · PHI 59% → 75% +15PHI 59% → 75%+15 pts
- P22:52Matvei Michkov Goal (17) Backhand, assists: nonePHI 3 – 0 NYI · PHI 78% → 89% +11PHI 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P215:37Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (50), Simon Holmstrom (21)PHI 3 – 1 NYI · NYI 6% → 16% +10NYI 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P39:16Travis Sanheim Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (26), Alex Bump (4)PHI 4 – 1 NYI · PHI 95% → >99% +4PHI 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 59.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −1 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +69 Elo | NYI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%4th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220–17 | Road vs home | 21–1510th of 32 |
| 4th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 24th of 321478 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–27 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 5–24 |
| Underdog | 38–15 | 35–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 NYI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.