Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:31Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (32), Trevor Zegras (39)1–2
- P30:35Pavel Zacha Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (27), David Pastrnak (68)1–1
- P14:19Christian Dvorak Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (2), Rasmus Ristolainen (11)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Christian Dvorak Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (2), Rasmus Ristolainen (11)BOS 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 59% → 73% +14PHI 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P30:35Pavel Zacha Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (27), David Pastrnak (68)BOS 1 – 1 PHI · BOS 22% → 45% +23BOS 22% → 45%+23 pts
- OT2:31Porter Martone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (32), Trevor Zegras (39)BOS 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 52% → 97% +45PHI 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML BOS +136 / PHI -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +8 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 17–2127th of 32 |
| 5th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–28 | 49–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 38–13 | 39–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–35 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.