Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- Casey MittelstadtPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (48), Ryan McDonagh (12)1–3
- P314:29Darren Raddysh Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (21)1–2
- P32:13Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (19)1–1
- P26:47Casey Mittelstadt Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (27), Pavel Zacha (33)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:47Casey Mittelstadt Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (27), Pavel Zacha (33)BOS 1 – 0 TB · BOS 42% → 61% +19BOS 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P32:13Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (19)BOS 1 – 1 TB · TB 30% → 56% +26TB 30% → 56%+26 pts
- P314:29Darren Raddysh Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (21)BOS 1 – 2 TB · TB 53% → 90% +37TB 53% → 90%+37 pts
- P318:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (48), Ryan McDonagh (12)BOS 1 – 3 TB · TB 99% → >99% +1TB 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML BOS +145 / TB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TB: Elo 63.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -156
- BOS +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +95 Elo | TB 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 51.4%7th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 23–145th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 11th of 321513 | Elo rating | 15752nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–27 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 26–38 |
| Underdog | 38–12 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–7 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.