Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Anthony BeauvillierGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Anthony BeauvillierPoints1
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:53Jakob Chychrun Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (32), Alex Ovechkin (32)2–1
- P210:46Anthony Beauvillier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11)1–1
- P20:27Boone Jenner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (26), Danton Heinen (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:27Boone Jenner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (26), Danton Heinen (6)WSH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 57% → 73% +16CBJ 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P210:46Anthony Beauvillier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11)WSH 1 – 1 CBJ · WSH 25% → 44% +19WSH 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P315:53Jakob Chychrun Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (32), Alex Ovechkin (32)WSH 2 – 1 CBJ · WSH 48% → 91% +43WSH 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 58%
- ML WSH +130 / CBJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +5 | WSH: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +29 Elo | CBJ 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 9th of 321526 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–37 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–2 CBJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.