Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Red Wings- Justin FaulkGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Zach Werenski Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Alex DeBrincat Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P319:43Adam Fantilli Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (58), Kirill Marchenko (39)3–3
- P315:14Justin Faulk Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (43), Andrew Copp (34)2–3
- P210:59Zach Werenski Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (18), Jet Greaves (1)2–2
- P26:27Justin Faulk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (30), Ben Chiarot (8)1–2
- P110:27Dylan Larkin Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (38), Moritz Seider (46)1–1
- P12:06Danton Heinen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:27Dylan Larkin Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (38), Moritz Seider (46)CBJ 1 – 1 DET · DET 34% → 50% +16DET 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P26:27Justin Faulk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (30), Ben Chiarot (8)CBJ 1 – 2 DET · DET 50% → 69% +19DET 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P210:59Zach Werenski Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (18), Jet Greaves (1)CBJ 2 – 2 DET · CBJ 30% → 50% +20CBJ 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P315:14Justin Faulk Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (43), Andrew Copp (34)CBJ 2 – 3 DET · DET 50% → 90% +40DET 50% → 90%+40 pts
- P319:43Adam Fantilli Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (58), Kirill Marchenko (39)CBJ 3 – 3 DET · CBJ <1% → 50% +50CBJ <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML CBJ -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 52.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- CBJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +15 Elo | DET 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 17th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 149319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–37 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 8–27 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 37–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–5 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.