Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:13Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P313:55Andrei Svechnikov Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (40), Sebastian Aho (50)4–2
- P312:42Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (15), Jaccob Slavin (5)3–2
- P32:07Adam Fantilli Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (22), Kirill Marchenko (37)2–2
- P215:14Kirill Marchenko Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (57), Mason Marchment (21)2–1
- P116:12Logan Stankoven Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (10)2–0
- P113:29Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (39), Andrei Svechnikov (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:29Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (39), Andrei Svechnikov (37)CAR 1 – 0 CBJ · CAR 54% → 69% +16CAR 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:12Logan Stankoven Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (10)CAR 2 – 0 CBJ · CAR 70% → 83% +13CAR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P215:14Kirill Marchenko Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (57), Mason Marchment (21)CAR 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 11% → 26% +15CBJ 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P32:07Adam Fantilli Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (22), Kirill Marchenko (37)CAR 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 23% → 48% +24CBJ 23% → 48%+24 pts
- P312:42Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (15), Jaccob Slavin (5)CAR 3 – 2 CBJ · CAR 51% → 86% +35CAR 51% → 86%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 54%
- ML CAR -130 / CBJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +12 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +4 Elo | CAR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.5% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 5th of 3220–15 | Road vs home | 20–1712th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321561 | Elo rating | 151612th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–46 | 40–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 6–4 CBJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.