Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals3
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Red Wings- Axel Sandin-PellikkaGoals1
- Axel Sandin-PellikkaAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (40), Mats Zuccarello (36)5–4
- P314:36Patrick Kane Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (42), Andrew Copp (33)4–4
- P311:14J.T. Compher Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (15), Marco Kasper (10)4–3
- P37:18Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (29), Lucas Raymond (48)4–2
- P212:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (36)4–1
- P27:03Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (14), Ryan Hartman (19)3–1
- P21:25Kirill Kaprizov Goal (41) Deflected, assists: Ryan Hartman (18), Mats Zuccarello (35)2–1
- P20:18Matt Boldy Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (30)1–1
- P11:40Albert Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (14), Patrick Kane (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:40Albert Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (14), Patrick Kane (37)MIN 0 – 1 DET · DET 45% → 60% +15DET 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P20:18Matt Boldy Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (30)MIN 1 – 1 DET · MIN 37% → 54% +18MIN 37% → 54%+18 pts
- P21:25Kirill Kaprizov Goal (41) Deflected, assists: Ryan Hartman (18), Mats Zuccarello (35)MIN 2 – 1 DET · MIN 54% → 71% +17MIN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P314:36Patrick Kane Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (42), Andrew Copp (33)MIN 4 – 4 DET · DET 10% → 48% +38DET 10% → 48%+38 pts
- P318:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (40), Mats Zuccarello (36)MIN 5 – 4 DET · MIN 51% → 98% +47MIN 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -135 / DET +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DET and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 20–1713th of 32 |
| 25th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 32 |
| 7th of 321533 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–38 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–32 | 8–27 |
| Underdog | 25–6 | 30–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 36–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.