Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Tom WillanderGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:52Ryan Hartman Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (43), Matt Boldy (39)2–5
- P36:03Ryan Hartman Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (32), Quinn Hughes (67)2–4
- P26:08Kirill Kaprizov Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31)2–3
- P20:23Matt Boldy Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P116:42Jake DeBrusk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (36), Elias Pettersson (33)2–1
- P116:00Tom Willander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (6), Max Sasson (6)1–1
- P18:32Matt Boldy Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (31), Joel Eriksson Ek (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:32Matt Boldy Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (31), Joel Eriksson Ek (28)VAN 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 76% → 86% +10MIN 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P116:00Tom Willander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (6), Max Sasson (6)VAN 1 – 1 MIN · VAN 14% → 26% +12VAN 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P116:42Jake DeBrusk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (36), Elias Pettersson (33)VAN 2 – 1 MIN · VAN 26% → 41% +16VAN 26% → 41%+16 pts
- P20:23Matt Boldy Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 57% → 73% +16MIN 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P26:08Kirill Kaprizov Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31)VAN 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 72% → 85% +14MIN 72% → 85%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 78%
- ML VAN +330 / MIN -425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 75.2%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -348
- VAN +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +193 Elo | MIN 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 77.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 3214–22 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321404 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–40 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 12–32 |
| Underdog | 33–31 | 24–6 |
| Overs–unders | 42–32 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.