Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Evander KaneGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Golden Knights- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:50Cole Smith Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (11), Nic Dowd (14)2–4
- P218:34Reilly Smith Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (5)2–3
- P217:17Shea Theodore Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (32), Mark Stone (42)2–2
- P212:17Brock Boeser Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (34), Elias Pettersson (31)2–1
- P27:48Rasmus Andersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (31), Noah Hanifin (21)1–1
- P112:19Evander Kane Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Evander Kane Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19)VAN 1 – 0 VGK · VAN 27% → 42% +15VAN 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P27:48Rasmus Andersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (31), Noah Hanifin (21)VAN 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 50% → 69% +19VGK 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P212:17Brock Boeser Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (34), Elias Pettersson (31)VAN 2 – 1 VGK · VAN 32% → 53% +21VAN 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P217:17Shea Theodore Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (32), Mark Stone (42)VAN 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 43% → 66% +23VGK 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P218:34Reilly Smith Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (5)VAN 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 66% → 85% +19VGK 66% → 85%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 75%
- ML VAN +285 / VGK -360
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.3%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -301
- VAN +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 4.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | 0 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +134 Elo | VGK 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 73.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–21 | Road vs home | 16–2128th of 32 |
| 21st of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321399 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–39 | 28–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 15–44 |
| Underdog | 32–30 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 41–31 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–7 VGK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.