Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Morgan FrostPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52Adam Klapka Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brennan Othmann (1), Hunter Brzustewicz (4)3–7
- P312:40Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Victor Mancini (1), Zeev Buium (18)3–6
- P219:23Zayne Parekh Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (22), Morgan Frost (20)2–6
- P213:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (21), Elias Pettersson (30)2–5
- P24:47Morgan Frost Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Matt Coronato (21), Matvei Gridin (10)1–5
- P24:36Olli Maatta Goal (2) Poke, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Hunter Brzustewicz (3)1–4
- P21:32Ryan Strome Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (9), Yegor Sharangovich (13)1–3
- P118:53Liam Ohgren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (18), Elias Pettersson (29)1–2
- P14:59Joel Farabee Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (11), Mikael Backlund (24)0–2
- P13:04Matt Coronato Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (4), Morgan Frost (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:04Matt Coronato Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (4), Morgan Frost (19)VAN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 59% → 73% +14CGY 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P14:59Joel Farabee Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (11), Mikael Backlund (24)VAN 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 73% → 84% +11CGY 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P118:53Liam Ohgren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (18), Elias Pettersson (29)VAN 1 – 2 CGY · VAN 14% → 26% +12VAN 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P21:32Ryan Strome Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (9), Yegor Sharangovich (13)VAN 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 74% → 86% +12CGY 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P24:36Olli Maatta Goal (2) Poke, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Hunter Brzustewicz (3)VAN 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 87% → 95% +7CGY 87% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 59%
- ML VAN +136 / CGY -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CGY: Elo 62.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +87 Elo | CGY 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 20–1712th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321403 | Elo rating | 145529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–38 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 6–4 CGY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.