Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals3
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints4
Avalanche- Sam MalinskiGoals2
- Devon ToewsAssists2
- Sam MalinskiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:31Brock Boeser Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (15)8–6
- P314:21Marcus Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (22), Drew O'Connor (12)7–6
- P313:58Sam Malinski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–6
- P313:21Brent Burns Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Valeri Nichushkin (30)6–5
- P30:14Parker Kelly Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (17), Josh Manson (25)6–4
- P215:43Sam Malinski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (19)6–3
- P215:21Brock Boeser Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (11)6–2
- P29:42Brock Boeser Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Willander (15), Marco Rossi (21)5–2
- P25:02Teddy Blueger Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (5), Marcus Pettersson (14)4–2
- P116:05Gabriel Landeskog Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (20), Valeri Nichushkin (29)3–2
- P111:38Jake DeBrusk Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (32), Marco Rossi (20)3–1
- P15:21Teddy Blueger Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (8)2–1
- P11:22Nathan MacKinnon Goal (50) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (18), Sam Malinski (30)1–1
- P10:29Max Sasson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (35), Zeev Buium (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:05Gabriel Landeskog Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (20), Valeri Nichushkin (29)VAN 3 – 2 COL · COL 44% → 61% +17COL 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P25:02Teddy Blueger Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (5), Marcus Pettersson (14)VAN 4 – 2 COL · VAN 44% → 63% +19VAN 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P313:21Brent Burns Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Valeri Nichushkin (30)VAN 6 – 5 COL · COL 3% → 20% +18COL 3% → 20%+18 pts
- P313:58Sam Malinski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 6 – 6 COL · COL 19% → 60% +42COL 19% → 60%+42 pts
- P314:21Marcus Pettersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (22), Drew O'Connor (12)VAN 7 – 6 COL · VAN 40% → 83% +42VAN 40% → 83%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 79%
- ML VAN +360 / COL -470
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- COL: Elo 78.7%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -379
- VAN +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.3 – 4.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +227 Elo | COL 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 80.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 29th of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 24–123rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149728th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321397 | Elo rating | 15871st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–40 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 36–36 |
| Underdog | 32–31 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 41–32 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–5 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.