Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:51Kyle Connor Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (55), Dylan Samberg (13)4–2
- P314:49Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bryson (5), Gabriel Vilardi (34)3–2
- P218:05Parker Kelly Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (24), Valeri Nichushkin (27)2–2
- P22:14Cole Koepke Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (16), Elias Salomonsson (4)2–1
- P18:59Brock Nelson Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (34), Cale Makar (52)1–1
- P13:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (38), Adam Lowry (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (38), Adam Lowry (15)WPG 1 – 0 COL · WPG 31% → 45% +14WPG 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P18:59Brock Nelson Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (34), Cale Makar (52)WPG 1 – 1 COL · COL 54% → 69% +15COL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P22:14Cole Koepke Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (16), Elias Salomonsson (4)WPG 2 – 1 COL · WPG 34% → 52% +18WPG 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P218:05Parker Kelly Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (24), Valeri Nichushkin (27)WPG 2 – 2 COL · COL 39% → 62% +24COL 39% → 62%+24 pts
- P314:49Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bryson (5), Gabriel Vilardi (34)WPG 3 – 2 COL · WPG 44% → 86% +42WPG 44% → 86%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 70%
- ML WPG +220 / COL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- COL: Elo 67.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -234
- WPG +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +125 Elo | COL 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%1st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 31st of 3212–22 | Road vs home | 23–113rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15891st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–39 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–31 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35 | 32–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 8–7 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.