Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Kyle ConnorAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:39Mark Scheifele Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Cole Perfetti (19), Gabriel Vilardi (33)3–2
- P33:55Nathan MacKinnon Goal (48) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (24), Gabriel Landeskog (21)3–1
- P30:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (33), Martin Necas (55)2–1
- P117:40Jack Drury Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (28), Parker Kelly (12)1–1
- P19:55Mark Scheifele Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (50), Josh Morrissey (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:55Mark Scheifele Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (50), Josh Morrissey (37)COL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 39% → 55% +16WPG 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P117:40Jack Drury Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (28), Parker Kelly (12)COL 1 – 1 WPG · COL 43% → 60% +17COL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P30:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (33), Martin Necas (55)COL 2 – 1 WPG · COL 57% → 79% +22COL 57% → 79%+22 pts
- P33:55Nathan MacKinnon Goal (48) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (24), Gabriel Landeskog (21)COL 3 – 1 WPG · COL 81% → 94% +14COL 81% → 94%+14 pts
- P39:39Mark Scheifele Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Cole Perfetti (19), Gabriel Vilardi (33)COL 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 3% → 16% +13WPG 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML COL -185 / WPG +154
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- COL: Elo 57.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -165
- WPG +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 2.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +50 Elo | COL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 3224–12 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 1st of 321587 | Elo rating | 149917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–34 | 32–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–34 | 11–31 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–38 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–8 WPG in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Mar 14COL 1 @ WPG 3Picked COL 62%Miss
- Dec 19WPG 2 @ COL 3Picked COL 66%Hit
- Jan 22WPG 3 @ COL 2Picked COL 52%Miss
- Jan 11COL 0 @ WPG 3Picked COL 54%Miss
- Dec 31WPG 2 @ COL 5Picked COL 65%Hit
- Nov 7COL 0 @ WPG 1Picked WPG 56%Hit
- Apr 30COL 6 @ WPG 3PlayoffsPicked WPG 54%Miss
- Apr 28WPG 1 @ COL 5PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Hit