Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Victor OlofssonAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Avalanche- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:48Artturi Lehkonen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (71), Martin Necas (57)2–9
- P312:53Ryan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (14), Victor Olofsson (17)2–8
- P38:10Sam Malinski Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Parker Kelly (14), Jack Drury (16)1–8
- P36:24Martin Necas Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (70), Artturi Lehkonen (25)1–7
- P219:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (49) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (55), Brock Nelson (28)1–6
- P23:37Brennan Othmann Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: John Beecher (4)1–5
- P115:50Parker Kelly Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (54), Jack Drury (15)0–5
- P19:19Gabriel Landeskog Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (27), Valeri Nichushkin (28)0–4
- P17:37Nazem Kadri Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P16:31Nazem Kadri Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (56), Cale Makar (53)0–2
- P12:31Jack Drury Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (13), Sam Malinski (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:31Jack Drury Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (13), Sam Malinski (29)CGY 0 – 1 COL · COL 76% → 86% +10COL 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P16:31Nazem Kadri Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (56), Cale Makar (53)CGY 0 – 2 COL · COL 86% → 93% +7COL 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P17:37Nazem Kadri Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 3 COL · COL 93% → 97% +4COL 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P19:19Gabriel Landeskog Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (27), Valeri Nichushkin (28)CGY 0 – 4 COL · COL 97% → 99% +2COL 97% → 99%+2 pts
- P115:50Parker Kelly Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (54), Jack Drury (15)CGY 0 – 5 COL · COL 99% → >99% +1COL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 77%
- ML CGY +310 / COL -395
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- COL: Elo 72.1%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -327
- CGY +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +165 Elo | COL 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 75.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%1st of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3210–25 | Road vs home | 23–123rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 29th of 321459 | Elo rating | 15841st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–32 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 35–36 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 33–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–5 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.