Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Lassi ThomsonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:43Drake Batherson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (2), Tim Stützle (45)4–1
- P312:46Jake Middleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (68), Joel Eriksson Ek (29)4–0
- P215:31Ryan Hartman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Kirill Kaprizov (44)3–0
- P115:35Ryan Hartman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33)2–0
- P19:45Jonas Brodin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (22), Jared Spurgeon (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:45Jonas Brodin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (22), Jared Spurgeon (14)MIN 1 – 0 OTT · MIN 46% → 62% +16MIN 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P115:35Ryan Hartman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33)MIN 2 – 0 OTT · MIN 63% → 78% +15MIN 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P215:31Ryan Hartman Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Kirill Kaprizov (44)MIN 3 – 0 OTT · MIN 86% → 95% +9MIN 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P312:46Jake Middleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (68), Joel Eriksson Ek (29)MIN 4 – 0 OTT · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P316:43Drake Batherson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Lassi Thomson (2), Tim Stützle (45)MIN 4 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → <1% +0OTT <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML MIN +110 / OTT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +43 Elo | OTT 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3221–15 | Road vs home | 19–1718th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 15288th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–38 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–32 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.