Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Isac LundestromAssists1
- Denton MateychukPoints1
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals2
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Logan StankovenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (34), Sebastian Aho (52)1–5
- P211:37Jordan Martinook Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (14)1–4
- P211:24Denton Mateychuk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (24), Isac Lundeström (8)1–3
- P112:50Alexander Nikishin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (33), Sebastian Aho (51)0–3
- P18:52Logan Stankoven Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (27), Jackson Blake (25)0–2
- P12:27Logan Stankoven Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (27), Taylor Hall (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:27Logan Stankoven Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (27), Taylor Hall (26)CBJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 63% → 76% +13CAR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P18:52Logan Stankoven Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (27), Jackson Blake (25)CBJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 76% → 87% +10CAR 76% → 87%+10 pts
- P112:50Alexander Nikishin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (33), Sebastian Aho (51)CBJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 87% → 94% +7CAR 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P211:24Denton Mateychuk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (24), Isac Lundeström (8)CBJ 1 – 3 CAR · CBJ 3% → 10% +6CBJ 3% → 10%+6 pts
- P211:37Jordan Martinook Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (14)CBJ 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 90% → 97% +6CAR 90% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CBJ +164 / CAR -198
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- CBJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −9 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +96 Elo | CAR 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 57.5%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 16th of 3218–19 | Road vs home | 26–122nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 15663rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–35 | 28–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 25–44 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–7 CAR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.