Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:58Kyle Connor Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (60)2–1
- P218:14Kyle Connor Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (59), Neal Pionk (8)1–1
- P11:17Ivan Provorov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (23), Kirill Marchenko (38)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:17Ivan Provorov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (23), Kirill Marchenko (38)WPG 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 57% → 71% +14CBJ 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P218:14Kyle Connor Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (59), Neal Pionk (8)WPG 1 – 1 CBJ · WPG 24% → 46% +22WPG 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P310:58Kyle Connor Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (60)WPG 2 – 1 CBJ · WPG 47% → 81% +34WPG 47% → 81%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 57%
- ML WPG +124 / CBJ -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -134
- WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +10 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +51 Elo | CBJ 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–41 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–32 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.