Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+

Away

Jets

32-31-12

0–3

at

Home

Stars

45-19-12

WPG 42%DAL 58%

You didn't pick this one.

American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored WPG favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Jets
    Stars

    Scoring summary

    • P22:15Adam Erne Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lian Bichsel (4), Arttu Hyry (2)0–3
    • P111:12Arttu Hyry Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (20), Adam Erne (2)0–2
    • P19:43Matt Duchene Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (52), Miro Heiskanen (53)0–1

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P19:43Matt Duchene Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (52), Miro Heiskanen (53)WPG 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 58% → 72% +15
    2. P111:12Arttu Hyry Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (20), Adam Erne (2)WPG 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 72% → 84% +12
    3. P22:15Adam Erne Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lian Bichsel (4), Arttu Hyry (2)WPG 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 86% → 94% +8

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Stars 58%

    LeanHit
    WPG 42%DAL 58%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    DAL 58%
    ML WPG +130 / DAL -155
    Pre-line forecast
    DAL 64%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    DAL 61%
    Ratings vs. market
    +2.9 pts
    DAL: Elo 61.2%, market 58.3%
    Fair odds
    DAL -140
    WPG +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    WPG 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorWPGDALWhy
    Team rating15051551Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies0−2WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsDAL +79 EloDAL 61.2%
    Market-implied ratingsDAL 64.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastDAL 63.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastDAL 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
    WPGStatDAL
    24th of 322.9Goals scored3.48th of 32
    15th of 323.1Goals allowed2.82nd of 32
    20th of 32−0.2Margin+0.64th of 32
    23rd of 3248.5%Shot share49.2%19th of 32
    17th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.2%10th of 32
    5th of 326–4Last 103–728th of 32
    27th of 3214–22Road vs home22–147th of 32
    22nd of 321498Opponent Elo149531st of 32
    16th of 321505Elo rating15514th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    JetsStars
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonWPGDAL
    Puck line34–4030–45
    Last 106–42–8
    Favorite11–3216–43
    Underdog23–814–2
    Overs–unders39–3537–38
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    WPG 6–11 DAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.