Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Ilya MikheyevAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Kyle Connor Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (58), Josh Morrissey (39)4–3
- P39:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (16), Louis Crevier (16)3–3
- P213:26Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (30) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P211:57Isak Rosen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danil Zhilkin (1), Neal Pionk (7)3–1
- P211:19Cole Perfetti Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (15), Mark Scheifele (57)2–1
- P21:06Josh Morrissey Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (51), Mark Scheifele (56)1–1
- P14:42Anton Frondell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (15), Louis Crevier (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:42Anton Frondell Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (15), Louis Crevier (15)WPG 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 42% → 57% +15CHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P21:06Josh Morrissey Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (51), Mark Scheifele (56)WPG 1 – 1 CHI · WPG 39% → 57% +18WPG 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P211:19Cole Perfetti Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (15), Mark Scheifele (57)WPG 2 – 1 CHI · WPG 56% → 75% +19WPG 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P39:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (16), Louis Crevier (16)WPG 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 17% → 47% +30CHI 17% → 47%+30 pts
- OT0:33Kyle Connor Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (58), Josh Morrissey (39)WPG 4 – 3 CHI · WPG 52% → 92% +40WPG 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML WPG -155 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +54 Elo | WPG 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 44.7%32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 28th of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 13–2329th of 32 |
| 21st of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Elo rating | 140831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–39 | 46–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–31 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 46–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 32–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 8–2 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.