Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Sean KuralyAssists2
- Sean KuralyPoints3
Blue Jackets- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Danton HeinenAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:22Mark Kastelic Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (14), Jordan Harris (2)3–2
- P31:27Adam Fantilli Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (5)2–2
- P219:41Henri Jokiharju Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (13), James Hagens (1)2–1
- P110:31Sean Kuraly Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mark Kastelic (10), Henri Jokiharju (13)1–1
- P13:59Mason Marchment Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (6), Boone Jenner (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Mason Marchment Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (6), Boone Jenner (25)BOS 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 64% → 77% +13CBJ 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P110:31Sean Kuraly Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mark Kastelic (10), Henri Jokiharju (13)BOS 1 – 1 CBJ · BOS 23% → 37% +14BOS 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P219:41Henri Jokiharju Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (13), James Hagens (1)BOS 2 – 1 CBJ · BOS 41% → 66% +25BOS 41% → 66%+25 pts
- P31:27Adam Fantilli Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (5)BOS 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 33% → 58% +26CBJ 33% → 58%+26 pts
- P310:22Mark Kastelic Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (14), Jordan Harris (2)BOS 3 – 2 CBJ · BOS 44% → 78% +34BOS 44% → 78%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 64%
- ML BOS +170 / CBJ -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -181
- BOS +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CBJ and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +6 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +53 Elo | CBJ 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 27th of 3215–24 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 52–28 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 41–13 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–37 | 39–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–3 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.