Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals3
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints3
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Sean WalkerAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:13Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (53), Andrei Svechnikov (39)5–6
- P312:33Pavel Zacha Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (49), Viktor Arvidsson (29)5–5
- P218:50Morgan Geekie Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (20), Charlie McAvoy (48)4–5
- P28:33Taylor Hall Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (29), Sean Walker (21)3–5
- P27:20William Carrier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (15)3–4
- P25:17Logan Stankoven Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (29), Jackson Blake (28)3–3
- P117:25Morgan Geekie Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (70), Nikita Zadorov (19)3–2
- P113:36Morgan Geekie Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (69), Elias Lindholm (31)2–2
- P111:38K'Andre Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (15)1–2
- P110:04Andrei Svechnikov Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (20), Sean Walker (20)1–1
- P14:40Hampus Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (34), Viktor Arvidsson (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:25Morgan Geekie Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (70), Nikita Zadorov (19)BOS 3 – 2 CAR · BOS 40% → 57% +17BOS 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P25:17Logan Stankoven Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (29), Jackson Blake (28)BOS 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 40% → 59% +19CAR 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P27:20William Carrier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (15)BOS 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 59% → 77% +17CAR 59% → 77%+17 pts
- P312:33Pavel Zacha Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (49), Viktor Arvidsson (29)BOS 5 – 5 CAR · BOS 13% → 46% +33BOS 13% → 46%+33 pts
- OT1:13Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (53), Andrei Svechnikov (39)BOS 5 – 6 CAR · CAR 53% → 94% +41CAR 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML BOS +154 / CAR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -165
- BOS +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +92 Elo | CAR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.07th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 28–122nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15663rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–28 | 29–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 26–46 |
| Underdog | 39–13 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 43–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–5 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.