Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Jackson BlakeAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:03Claude Giroux Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (21), Jake Sanderson (38)3–6
- P317:30Taylor Hall Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sean Walker (19), Jackson Blake (27)3–5
- P36:32Brady Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (21), Dylan Cozens (28)2–5
- P32:50Shane Pinto Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (15)2–4
- P28:33Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (24), Ridly Greig (20)2–3
- P119:40Andrei Svechnikov Goal (29) Poke, assists: none2–2
- P18:51Tim Stützle Goal (33) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P17:17Dylan Cozens Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (46), Drake Batherson (35)1–1
- P15:22Logan Stankoven Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (41), Jackson Blake (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:17Dylan Cozens Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (46), Drake Batherson (35)CAR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 33% → 48% +15OTT 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P18:51Tim Stützle Goal (33) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 48% → 63% +16OTT 48% → 63%+16 pts
- P119:40Andrei Svechnikov Goal (29) Poke, assists: noneCAR 2 – 2 OTT · CAR 34% → 52% +17CAR 34% → 52%+17 pts
- P28:33Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (24), Ridly Greig (20)CAR 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 48% → 68% +19OTT 48% → 68%+19 pts
- P32:50Shane Pinto Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (15)CAR 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 74% → 91% +17OTT 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 52%
- ML CAR -120 / OTT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -109
- OTT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +2 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +4 Elo | CAR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.8% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 5th of 3221–15 | Road vs home | 19–1819th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321571 | Elo rating | 15229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–47 | 34–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–45 | 19–36 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 6–2 OTT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.