New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- K'Andre MillerAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:23Anders Lee Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (36), Mathew Barzal (51)3–4
- P30:24Seth Jarvis Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (38), K'Andre Miller (29)2–4
- P216:17Sebastian Aho Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (34), Jaccob Slavin (6)2–3
- P211:15Jackson Blake Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (20), Taylor Hall (28)2–2
- P22:15Max Shabanov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (16), Scott Mayfield (12)2–1
- P111:07Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (18), K'Andre Miller (28)1–1
- P15:17Marc Gatcomb Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Simon Holmstrom (22), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:17Marc Gatcomb Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Simon Holmstrom (22), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (18)NYI 1 – 0 CAR · NYI 32% → 46% +15NYI 32% → 46%+15 pts
- P111:07Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (18), K'Andre Miller (28)NYI 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 52% → 67% +16CAR 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P22:15Max Shabanov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (16), Scott Mayfield (12)NYI 2 – 1 CAR · NYI 35% → 53% +18NYI 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P211:15Jackson Blake Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (20), Taylor Hall (28)NYI 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 43% → 63% +21CAR 43% → 63%+21 pts
- P216:17Sebastian Aho Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (34), Jaccob Slavin (6)NYI 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 62% → 81% +19CAR 62% → 81%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML NYI +210 / CAR -258
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 71.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -223
- NYI +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 3.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +158 Elo | CAR 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 27–122nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 15693rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–37 | 29–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–25 | 26–44 |
| Underdog | 35–12 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–9 CAR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Oct 30NYI 2 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 66%Hit
- Mar 30NYI 4 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 75%Hit
- Jan 25CAR 2 @ NYI 3Picked CAR 66%Miss
- Dec 17NYI 0 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 7CAR 3 @ NYI 4Picked CAR 64%Miss
- Apr 30NYI 3 @ CAR 6PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 2 @ NYI 3PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 3 @ NYI 2PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Miss