Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints1
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:25Emil Lilleberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (50), Brayden Point (31)2–1
- P36:37Brandon Hagel Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (22), Ryan McDonagh (14)1–1
- P210:47Morgan Geekie Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (50)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:47Morgan Geekie Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (50)TB 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 49% → 69% +20BOS 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P36:37Brandon Hagel Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (22), Ryan McDonagh (14)TB 1 – 1 BOS · TB 22% → 51% +28TB 22% → 51%+28 pts
- P318:25Emil Lilleberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (50), Brayden Point (31)TB 2 – 1 BOS · TB 50% → 99% +49TB 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- TB: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +28 Elo | TB 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 5th of 3223–17 | Road vs home | 28–111st of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321567 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–41 | 51–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 11–1 | 40–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–3 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.