Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Darren RaddyshPoints1
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (70)1–2
- P318:09Darren Raddysh Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (85), Gage Goncalves (21)1–1
- P26:30Cole Caufield Goal (50) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (69), Juraj Slafkovský (41)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:30Cole Caufield Goal (50) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (69), Juraj Slafkovský (41)TB 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 48% → 67% +19MTL 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P318:09Darren Raddysh Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (85), Gage Goncalves (21)TB 1 – 1 MTL · TB 2% → 50% +49TB 2% → 50%+49 pts
- P318:56Juraj Slafkovský Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (70)TB 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 50% → >99% +50MTL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -122 / MTL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TB: Elo 50.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- MTL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%19th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3223–16 | Road vs home | 23–168th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321569 | Elo rating | 15357th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–40 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 10–32 |
| Underdog | 11–1 | 32–4 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–3 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.