Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:06Jack Quinn Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (18), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)2–4
- P27:38Jason Zucker Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (30), Rasmus Dahlin (52)2–3
- P23:56Jake Guentzel Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Darren Raddysh (48)2–2
- P114:04Josh Norris Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (25), Zach Benson (27)1–2
- P111:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (49), Darren Raddysh (47)1–1
- P15:42Alex Tuch Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (29), Ryan McLeod (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:42Alex Tuch Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (29), Ryan McLeod (39)TB 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 48% → 63% +15BUF 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P111:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (49), Darren Raddysh (47)TB 1 – 1 BUF · TB 36% → 52% +16TB 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P114:04Josh Norris Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (25), Zach Benson (27)TB 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 48% → 64% +16BUF 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P23:56Jake Guentzel Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Darren Raddysh (48)TB 2 – 2 BUF · TB 34% → 52% +18TB 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P27:38Jason Zucker Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (30), Rasmus Dahlin (52)TB 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 48% → 67% +19BUF 48% → 67%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -122 / BUF +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 50.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- BUF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–14 | Road vs home | 24–143rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321577 | Elo rating | 15425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–38 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–38 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 38–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–6 BUF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.