Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Jesper BoqvistAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Canadiens- Phillip DanaultGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alexandre Texier Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P319:39Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (63), Juraj Slafkovský (40)3–3
- P37:49Eetu Luostarinen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (26), Jesper Boqvist (9)3–2
- P36:22Phillip Danault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (35), Adam Engstrom (1)2–2
- P213:43Cole Reinhardt Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4), Seth Jones (25)2–1
- P20:54Ivan Demidov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (37), Juraj Slafkovský (39)1–1
- P19:23Carter Verhaeghe Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:54Ivan Demidov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (37), Juraj Slafkovský (39)FLA 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 50% → 68% +17MTL 50% → 68%+17 pts
- P213:43Cole Reinhardt Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4), Seth Jones (25)FLA 2 – 1 MTL · FLA 35% → 57% +22FLA 35% → 57%+22 pts
- P36:22Phillip Danault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (35), Adam Engstrom (1)FLA 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 31% → 61% +30MTL 31% → 61%+30 pts
- P37:49Eetu Luostarinen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (26), Jesper Boqvist (9)FLA 3 – 2 MTL · FLA 40% → 71% +31FLA 40% → 71%+31 pts
- P319:39Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (63), Juraj Slafkovský (40)FLA 3 – 3 MTL · MTL <1% → 52% +52MTL <1% → 52%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 71%
- ML FLA +235 / MTL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 61.5%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MTL -249
- FLA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 3.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +5 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +82 Elo | MTL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 67.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 22–169th of 32 |
| 1st of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 32 |
| 17th of 321504 | Elo rating | 15337th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–51 | 42–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 10–31 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 32–4 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 44–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–7 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.