Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nick PaulAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints2
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals2
- Brady TkachukAssists4
- Brady TkachukPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:41Shane Pinto Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P313:04Jake Sanderson Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (36), Drake Batherson (37)2–5
- P312:51Tim Stützle Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (29), Drake Batherson (36)2–4
- P310:35Corey Perry Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (13), Nick Paul (8)2–3
- P34:39Jake Sanderson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (48), Brady Tkachuk (35)1–3
- P32:45Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (34), Cameron Crotty (1)1–2
- P218:23Nick Paul Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Corey Perry (20), Nikita Kucherov (84)1–1
- P215:46Jordan Spence Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (33), Tim Stützle (47)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:46Jordan Spence Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (33), Tim Stützle (47)TB 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 75% +21OTT 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P218:23Nick Paul Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Corey Perry (20), Nikita Kucherov (84)TB 1 – 1 OTT · TB 24% → 46% +22TB 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P32:45Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (34), Cameron Crotty (1)TB 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 53% → 78% +24OTT 53% → 78%+24 pts
- P34:39Jake Sanderson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (48), Brady Tkachuk (35)TB 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 79% → 94% +15OTT 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P310:35Corey Perry Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (13), Nick Paul (8)TB 2 – 3 OTT · TB 3% → 16% +13TB 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML TB +120 / OTT -142
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -129
- TB +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −30 | +2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.75 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +50 Elo | OTT 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–15 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321574 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–39 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 19–36 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–6 OTT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.