Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Sabres- Josh DoanGoals2
- Josh NorrisAssists2
- Josh DoanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (16), Tyson Kozak (3)0–5
- P313:46Josh Doan Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (28), Josh Norris (21)0–4
- P313:21Jack Quinn Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (15), Jason Zucker (20)0–3
- P37:19Josh Doan Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P113:41Peyton Krebs Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:41Peyton Krebs Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (20)CBJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 48% → 65% +16BUF 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P37:19Josh Doan Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 78% → 94% +16BUF 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P313:21Jack Quinn Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (15), Jason Zucker (20)CBJ 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P313:46Josh Doan Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (28), Josh Norris (21)CBJ 0 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P316:55Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (16), Tyson Kozak (3)CBJ 0 – 5 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML CBJ -118 / BUF -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 45.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -107
- BUF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −8 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +30 Elo | BUF 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%3rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 16th of 3219–20 | Road vs home | 25–143rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15495th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–37 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 5–3 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.