Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals2
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Zach BensonPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Zach Benson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (26), Josh Norris (19)5–3
- P37:14Jason Zucker Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (40)4–3
- P35:51Alex Tuch Goal (31) Deflected, assists: Peyton Krebs (27), Tage Thompson (41)3–3
- P214:44Adam Fox Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (37), Mika Zibanejad (43)2–3
- P22:57Alexis Lafrenière Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Fortescue (2)2–2
- P119:21Alexis Lafrenière Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (43), J.T. Miller (34)2–1
- P18:58Zach Benson Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (53), Bowen Byram (31)2–0
- P14:40Ryan McLeod Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (19), Conor Timmins (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:40Ryan McLeod Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (19), Conor Timmins (8)BUF 1 – 0 NYR · BUF 55% → 69% +14BUF 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P22:57Alexis Lafrenière Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Fortescue (2)BUF 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 29% → 46% +17NYR 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P214:44Adam Fox Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (37), Mika Zibanejad (43)BUF 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 47% → 68% +22NYR 47% → 68%+22 pts
- P35:51Alex Tuch Goal (31) Deflected, assists: Peyton Krebs (27), Tage Thompson (41)BUF 3 – 3 NYR · BUF 25% → 53% +28BUF 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P37:14Jason Zucker Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (40)BUF 4 – 3 NYR · BUF 52% → 80% +28BUF 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 55%
- ML BUF -135 / NYR +114
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -123
- NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +22 Elo | BUF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.111th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 6th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 14–2630th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 5th of 321546 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–34 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 32–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 36–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–4 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.