Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals2
- Adam FantilliAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:59Charlie Coyle Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (40), Adam Fantilli (35)5–2
- P33:58Cole Caufield Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (71), Juraj Slafkovský (42)4–2
- P210:36Sean Monahan Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (15)4–1
- P21:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (22), Adam Fantilli (34)3–1
- P111:48Josh Anderson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (12), Lane Hutson (64)2–1
- P15:42Charlie Coyle Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (3), Mason Marchment (25)2–0
- P11:13Boone Jenner Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (59), Danton Heinen (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:13Boone Jenner Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (59), Danton Heinen (4)CBJ 1 – 0 MTL · CBJ 46% → 60% +15CBJ 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P15:42Charlie Coyle Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (3), Mason Marchment (25)CBJ 2 – 0 MTL · CBJ 61% → 75% +14CBJ 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P111:48Josh Anderson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (12), Lane Hutson (64)CBJ 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 24% → 38% +14MTL 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P21:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (22), Adam Fantilli (34)CBJ 3 – 1 MTL · CBJ 64% → 80% +15CBJ 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P210:36Sean Monahan Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (15)CBJ 4 – 1 MTL · CBJ 83% → 93% +10CBJ 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 54%
- ML CBJ +110 / MTL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 60.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +71 Elo | MTL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 16th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 24–167th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 15387th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–38 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 10–32 |
| Underdog | 31–16 | 33–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41 | 45–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–6 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.