Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Penguins- Declan CarlileGoals1
- Declan CarlileAssists1
- Declan CarlilePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:02Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (3)3–2
- P38:53Declan Carlile Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (1), Ville Koivunen (1)2–2
- P37:08Adam Lowry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Dylan DeMelo (1)2–1
- P34:43Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P29:27Ben Kindel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Declan Carlile (2), Erik Karlsson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:27Ben Kindel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Declan Carlile (2), Erik Karlsson (4)WPG 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 58% → 76% +18PIT 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P34:43Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 1 PIT · WPG 19% → 44% +25WPG 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P37:08Adam Lowry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (1), Dylan DeMelo (1)WPG 2 – 1 PIT · WPG 45% → 75% +30WPG 45% → 75%+30 pts
- P38:53Declan Carlile Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (1), Ville Koivunen (1)WPG 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 23% → 55% +31PIT 23% → 55%+31 pts
- P39:02Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (3)WPG 3 – 2 PIT · WPG 45% → 77% +32WPG 45% → 77%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML WPG +145 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -156
- WPG +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | WPG: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Sergei Murashov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +45 Elo | PIT 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 27th of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 19–2125th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WPG |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–45 | 49–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–34 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–2 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.