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Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast

FinalPHI leads series 3-1

Away

Penguins

41-25-16

4–2

at

Home

Flyers

43-27-12

PIT 47%PHI 53%

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Xfinity Mobile Arena · TBS, truTV, HBO Max, NBC Sports Phil

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored PIT favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3PHI50%PIT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Penguins

Scoring summary

  • P319:03Connor Dewar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (1), Noel Acciari (1)4–2
  • P37:03Travis Konecny Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Travis Sanheim (1)3–2
  • P34:27Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (2), Rickard Rakell (3)3–1
  • P215:40Denver Barkey Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Zegras (3), Cam York (1)2–1
  • P21:03Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–0
  • P114:24Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:24Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (2)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 47% → 64% +16
  2. P21:03Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Backhand, assists: nonePIT 2 – 0 PHI · PIT 65% → 80% +15
  3. P215:40Denver Barkey Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Zegras (3), Cam York (1)PIT 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 14% → 30% +16
  4. P34:27Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (2), Rickard Rakell (3)PIT 3 – 1 PHI · PIT 75% → 92% +17
  5. P37:03Travis Konecny Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3), Travis Sanheim (1)PIT 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 6% → 23% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Flyers 53%

Toss-upMiss
PIT 47%PHI 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
PHI 53%
ML PIT +105 / PHI -125
Pre-line forecast
PHI 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 59%
Ratings vs. market
+5.9 pts
PHI: Elo 59.1%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
PHI -114
PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PIT 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPITPHIWhy
Team rating14971513Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−3+9PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +64 EloPHI 59.1%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 55.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 56.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers compared, with each team's league rank
PITStatPHI
3rd of 323.6Goals scored3.020th of 32
24th of 323.3Goals allowed3.09th of 32
10th of 32+0.3Margin+0.115th of 32
11th of 3251.1%Shot share50.0%16th of 32
24th of 3289.1%Save percentage89.1%23rd of 32
16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
9th of 3221–19Road vs home20–2121st of 32
7th of 321504Opponent Elo150310th of 32
18th of 321497Elo rating151312th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PenguinsFlyers
1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPITPHI
Puck line47–3855–30
Last 103–77–3
Favorite13–2211–14
Underdog34–1644–16
Overs–unders49–3643–42
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PIT 6–9 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.