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Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast

FinalPHI leads series 3-0

Away

Penguins

41-25-16

2–5

at

Home

Flyers

43-27-12

PIT 49%PHI 51%

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Xfinity Mobile Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, NBC Sports Phil

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored PIT favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3PHI50%PIT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Penguins
Flyers

Scoring summary

  • P318:48Owen Tippett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (1)2–5
  • P312:30Noah Cates Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Jamie Drysdale (2)2–4
  • P39:39Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Thomas Novak (2)2–3
  • P211:18Nick Seeler Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (2), Sean Couturier (3)1–3
  • P29:06Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (1), Sean Couturier (2)1–2
  • P25:18Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (1), Porter Martone (1)1–1
  • P14:18Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (1), Sidney Crosby (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:18Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (1), Sidney Crosby (1)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 49% → 64% +15
  2. P25:18Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (1), Porter Martone (1)PIT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 32% → 51% +19
  3. P29:06Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (1), Sean Couturier (2)PIT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 51% → 70% +19
  4. P211:18Nick Seeler Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (2), Sean Couturier (3)PIT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 71% → 86% +15
  5. P39:39Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Thomas Novak (2)PIT 2 – 3 PHI · PIT 4% → 19% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Flyers 51%

Toss-upHit
PIT 49%PHI 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
PHI 51%
ML PIT -105 / PHI -115
Pre-line forecast
PHI 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 58%
Ratings vs. market
+6.8 pts
PHI: Elo 57.9%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
PHI -104
PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PIT 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPITPHIWhy
Team rating15001509Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+10PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +55 EloPHI 57.9%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 53.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 54.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers compared, with each team's league rank
PITStatPHI
3rd of 323.6Goals scored3.020th of 32
24th of 323.3Goals allowed3.09th of 32
10th of 32+0.3Margin+0.115th of 32
11th of 3251.1%Shot share50.0%16th of 32
24th of 3289.1%Save percentage89.1%23rd of 32
16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
9th of 3221–19Road vs home20–2121st of 32
9th of 321503Opponent Elo150310th of 32
18th of 321500Elo rating150915th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PenguinsFlyers
1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPITPHI
Puck line47–3754–30
Last 104–66–4
Favorite13–2210–14
Underdog34–1544–16
Overs–unders48–3642–42
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PIT 6–8 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.