Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints2
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Tyson Foerster Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P210:30Trevor Zegras Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (5), Tyson Foerster (4)2–2
- P27:57Matvei Michkov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (12), Noah Cates (29)2–1
- P115:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (22), Jackson Blake (31)2–0
- P18:41Bradly Nadeau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (45), Sean Walker (22)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:41Bradly Nadeau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (45), Sean Walker (22)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 41% → 57% +16CAR 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P115:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (22), Jackson Blake (31)CAR 2 – 0 PHI · CAR 59% → 74% +15CAR 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P27:57Matvei Michkov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (12), Noah Cates (29)CAR 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 20% → 37% +17PHI 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P210:30Trevor Zegras Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (5), Tyson Foerster (4)CAR 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 36% → 57% +20PHI 36% → 57%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML CAR +136 / PHI -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 43.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- CAR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +44 Elo | CAR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 6th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.6% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3223–16 | Road vs home | 18–2125th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321576 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–49 | 51–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–47 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 41–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 9–1 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.