Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Porter MartoneGoals1
- Porter MartoneAssists1
- Porter MartonePoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals3
- Moritz SeiderAssists4
- Moritz SeiderPoints5
Scoring summary
- P318:09Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Denver Barkey (10), Sean Couturier (23)3–6
- P311:39Dylan Larkin Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (50), Lucas Raymond (50)2–6
- P37:01Patrick Kane Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (16), Moritz Seider (49)2–5
- P29:25Porter Martone Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (41), Jamie Drysdale (24)2–4
- P24:56Dylan Larkin Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (8)1–4
- P21:50Dylan Larkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (40), Moritz Seider (48)1–3
- P20:32Moritz Seider Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (39), Dylan Larkin (31)1–2
- P113:24Christian Dvorak Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Porter Martone (4), Travis Konecny (40)1–1
- P12:28Alex DeBrincat Goal (40) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (49), Moritz Seider (47)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Alex DeBrincat Goal (40) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (49), Moritz Seider (47)PHI 0 – 1 DET · DET 52% → 66% +14DET 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P113:24Christian Dvorak Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Porter Martone (4), Travis Konecny (40)PHI 1 – 1 DET · PHI 33% → 48% +16PHI 33% → 48%+16 pts
- P20:32Moritz Seider Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (39), Dylan Larkin (31)PHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 51% → 69% +17DET 51% → 69%+17 pts
- P21:50Dylan Larkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (40), Moritz Seider (48)PHI 1 – 3 DET · DET 69% → 83% +14DET 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P24:56Dylan Larkin Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (8)PHI 1 – 4 DET · DET 84% → 93% +9DET 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML PHI -102 / DET -118
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 53.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | 0 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 7th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–28 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–28 |
| Underdog | 40–15 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–38 | 38–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.